The predicted midterm “red wave” really turned out to be a washout. Up until Tuesday, polls around the country, from FiveThirtyEight, to Quinnipiac and CNN, warned of a massive GOP red wave that would nab dozens of seats in the U.S. House and Senate. GOP Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert tweeted on Tuesday “the red wave has begun,” but as of this blog post, her race for District 3 is too close to call (she leads Democrat challenger Adam Frisch by only 58 votes, with thousands more yet to be counted).
Before the election, Texas Senator Ted Cruz stated “I think this is going to be, not just a red wave, but a red tsunami.”In Georgia, Trump favorite Herschel Walker (favored by polls) and Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock were deadlocked and are now headed for a runoff on December 8. Another Trump favorite, Dr. Oz, lost his bid for a senate seat to Democrat John Fetterman by over 300k votes, although polls pointed to a tighter race.
A CNN Poll conducted by SSRS favored Republican candidates in state races, but the reality is that the Democrats made big gains in state legislatures and maintained governorships, while GOP candidates deepened their control in very red states. Democrats also won historic victories in Massachusetts, where Maura Healey was elected as the state’s first openly gay governor, and in Maryland, where Wes Moore will become the state’s first Black governor.
The polls were mostly wrong about the “red wave,” and Michael Moore was more or less right about the Democrats (sigh of relief). As of yesterday, Republicans flipped 7 U.S. House seats (not 30-40 as predicted), and control of the Senate is still a nail-biting toss-up, with Democrats edging closer to a majority with Mark Kelly’s (D-AZ) win and a tightening race in Nevada.
Perhaps the narrative of a red wave was more wishful thinking on the part of GOP-leaning polls.
Or maybe pollsters failed to see how important issues such as abortion rights are to Americans. An example of this is another CNN-SSRS survey from late October that found 51% of voters listed “the economy and inflation” as a major concern when choosing a candidate, as opposed to 15% of voters who listed abortion. However, voters (especially young voters) turned out in droves to support pro-choice Democratic candidates.
Although the polls missed the mark again, I believe that the majority of Americans do in fact want to preserve their democracy, and that’s why the red wave washed out.
In Arizona in particular, voters (Republicans included) rejected the election deniers — and they did so because the GOP candidates were election deniers. The economy (i.e. your reference to the woman voting Republican because of the price of eggs) turned out not to be the determining factor after all, Carol. So encouraging that. President Joe emphasized the importance of the election for the sake of democracy. He was lambasted for this by almost everyone — friend and foe alike. Yet, he sensed (correctly) there were many — very many — Americans who felt this way. The Wall Street Journal, no less, blistered Kari Lake on its editorial page for this very reason.
We also know now that the reproductive rights issue played an even bigger role than we anticipated. Even predominantly Republican states rejected (by referendum) onerous restrictions on abortion: Montana, Kentucky, Kansas.
As for governorships, Dems actually gained three. This has not been done in a mid-term election since 1934. No small accomplishment that.
Last but not least, two items on the Republican side: 1) a non-election-denier Republican was elected governor in Nevada in defiance of Mr Trump; and 2) Republican Gov Doug Ducey of AZ certified the election of Katie Hobbs, immediately congratulated her, then promised a smooth transition.
Some Republicans get it. So, not only did Dems do well in the mid-terms, some decent Republicans did too. I would like to think this bodes well for the American Republic. We must remain vigilant, of course. Ben Franklin: “A republic, madam, if you can keep it”
– Spike