Years ago I subscribed to a humorous magazine called the Journal of Irreproducible Results: Improbable Investigations and Unfounded Findings. It was a hysterically nerdy publication that parodied scientific publications and research. Article titles ranged from “Golf and the Poo Muscle, to Prenatal psychoanalysis to the Pachydermobile.”  The articles were fun reading, and at the foundation of the publication was its title: Irreproducible results.

The title was funny because the basis of scientific research is that results must be reproduced by more than one researcher, preferably independent of one another.

Too bad our lawmakers don’t realize that scientific studies need to be reproduced by other researchers.

An example of an “irreproducible result” is the recent Israeli study of 2.5 million COVID-19 patients. The study found that people who were vaccinated against covid were 7 times more likely to get covid than people who had it. When the study was released, an Instagram post highlighted the non-peer-reviewed study, claiming it found that unvaccinated people previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 had greater immunity against the delta variant than never-infected people fully vaccinated with Pfizer/BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine. However, the social media post left out the study’s other finding that one dose of the vaccine enhanced protection for infection survivors.

Conservative lawmakers, including our own state Senator Gregg Schmedes, highlighted this study as more proof that natural immunity works better than vaccines. This week Senator Schmedes retweeted a comment from Martin Kulldorf, who tweeted that “For our belief in science and natural immunity after Covid disease @HHSGOV secretary @XavierBacerra has called us ‘flat Earthers, and he refuses to apologize. On this one, it’s Bacerr and Fauci who are the flat earthers.”

Although the Israeli study was well received by experts, it did have limitations. For example, it was done through reviews of patient medical records, which are limited by biases such as mask-wearing, social distancing, and COVID-19 testing. I realize that other similar studies are needed to “reproduce” similar results, and that may take some time. After all, COVID-19 is relatively new, and scientists and researchers are gaining more information on this virus as time goes on.

An interesting note is that the Israeli study was not peer-reviewed by other scientists and researchers. This is a no-no in science. Studies need to be reviewed by other researchers, where the material and methods can be examined. Scientific studies need to follow the rules of research. Another issue with the study is context. The study compared more than 16,000 patients who got COVID and were never vaccinated to 16,000 patients who got the Pfizer vaccine. The study was done when Delta was running rampant. The conclusion was that the vaccinated group had a 13-fold increased risk for breakthrough infections than those who were unvaccinated and had COVID. So it concluded that natural immunity conferred a “longer-lasting and stronger protection against infection.”

As mentioned above, the study did not include masks and social distancing. Also, the vaccinated group studied only had one dose of the Pfizer vaccine.

Other studies (which were peer-reviewed), such as from Michigan, found that patients with mild infections produced antibodies that protect against COVID reinfection for up to 6 months. This study looked at health care workers and patients who had a higher risk of exposure. A Rockefeller study found that vaccines gave greater amounts of circulating antibodies than natural infection. Another study found that not all COVID memory cells are equal and that natural memory B cells delivered better protection for longer. A CDC study found that unvaccinated COVID survivors were twice as likely to get re-infected.

The findings from another study suggest that providing booster doses of mRNA vaccines to vaccinated individuals will result in increased plasma neutralizing activity. However, it may not produce antibodies that exhibit neutralizing breadth against variants of concern, as observed in the case of convalescent individuals.

So, what are these memory B cells? COVID-19 is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, known as SARS-CoV-2. Infection with SARS-CoV-2 produces B cell responses that persist for at least one year. So, immunological memory is essential to prevent re-infection, and B cells play a vital role in this part of the defense mechanism provided by a person’s own immune system. The rapid recall responses elicited by memory B cells help provide long-term protection against pathogens.

Context is important in science, as well as materials and methods. According to Michel Nussenzweig, head of Rockefeller’s Laboratory of Molecular Immunology, “while natural infection may induce maturation of antibodies with broader activity than a vaccine does, a natural infection can also kill you.”

“Though the human immune system is indeed an extraordinary mechanism, it’s not worth gambling with a disease as unpredictable and serious as COVID-19,” stated infectious disease expert Anna Durbin, a professor of international health at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine. She mentioned that a common reason cited for not getting vaccinated (especially among the young and healthy) is “I trust my immune system.” The same goes for those who have already had the virus and assume they have some measure of natural immunity.

With the delta variant, more young people are on ventilators in hospitals and dying. Declining the vaccine is not just a personal decision. An infected person can easily transmit the virus to others, including immunocompromised people who are at a higher risk for serious illness and children under 12 who cannot get vaccinated.

Although Senator Schmedes and other conservatives in Washington cite the Israeli study, they fail to mention the 600K plus deaths in the U.S. due to COVID, and that the majority of those hospitalized have not been vaccinated. Sure, natural infection does provide some immunity, and the next time you get sick with that virus, you won’t get as sick. But would you want to take that risk?

With COVID-19, you could end up in the hospital, on a ventilator, and you could die, not to mention losing your sense of taste and smell for months. What we do know is that COVID is an unpredictable disease, and hits people in different ways: That fact is reproducible.